Print ISSN: 2226-5724
- RePEc (Simple impact factor: 0.06, Citation Analysis)
Title: | |
Forecasting Energy Consumption of Turkey by Arima Model |
|
Author(s): | |
Suat Ozturk,Feride Ozturk |
|
Affiliation(s): | |
DERAC, Bulent Ecevit University, Zonguldak, Turkey |
|
Abstract: | |
Forecasting energy consumption has an important role in planning energy strategies for both policy makers and related organizations in any country. In this study, coal, oil, natural gas, renewable and total energy consumption data for 1970-2015 is used to forecast energy consumption of Turkey for the next 25 years, using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The ARIMA models are determined to be ARIMA(1, 1, 1) for coal consumption, ARIMA (0, 1, 0) for oil consumption, ARIMA (0, 0, 0) for natural gas consumption, ARIMA (1, 1, 0) for renewable energy consumption and ARIMA (0, 1, 2) for total energy consumption. The results indicate that Turkey?s energy consumption will continue to increase by the end of 2040. Consumption of coal, oil, natural gas, renewable energy and total energy will continue to increase at an annual average rate of 4.87 %, 3.92 %, 4.39 %, 1.64 % and 4.20 %, respectively in the next 25 years. |
|
Keywords: | |
Forecasting, ARIMA, Renewable energy consumption, Coal consumption, Oil consumption, Natural gas consumption, Turkey. | |
Video: | |
Citation: | |
Suat Ozturk --- Feride Ozturk (2018) "Forecasting Energy Consumption of Turkey by Arima Model" Journal of Asian Scientific Research Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. 52-60. | |
Article Type: | Research Article |
Pages: | 52-60 |
DOI: | 10.18488/journal.2.2018.82.52.60 |
History | Received: 5 December 2017 | Revised: 3 January 2018 | Accepted: 9 January 2018 | Published: 15 January 2018 |
Publisher: | Asian Economic and Social Society |
Download: | |
View: | Full Text HTML |
Viewers Online: | |